The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't appear to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the money is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very highly regarded player."
Although respected cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
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"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with numerous bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has sneaked up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at many sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
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Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A a little higher majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Coming in On Texas'
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